Who Will Win, Who Should Win

Best Drama Series

WILL WIN Shogun 

In a thin year (The Crown is the only repeat nom), contenders include shows new (Fallout, Mr. & Mrs. Smith, 3 Body Problem) and returning (The Morning Show, The Gilded Age, Slow Horses). But the clear frontrunner — with a field-leading 25 noms — is an epic that was expected to be a limited series before going over so well that a second season was ordered. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Shogun

The TV Academy needs to send FX a muffin basket for saving what was going to be the weakest drama field since before the days of prestige cable. Even if FX finally decides that a second Shogun season is a bad idea — and it is — Rachel Kondo and Justin Marks’ respectful, immaculately produced, astonishingly cast James Clavell adaptation is beyond worthy of its Emmy. — D.F.

Best Lead Actor, Drama Series

WILL WIN Hiroyuki Sanada

A legend in Japan, Shogun’s Hiroyuki Sanada was little-known stateside — certainly compared to fellow nominees Idris Elba (Hijack), Donald Glover (Mr. & Mrs. Smith), Walton Goggins (Fallout), Gary Oldman (Slow Horses), and Dominic West (The Crown) — before playing Lord Toranaga. But thanks to that performance, he is, at 63, an international star and the clear frontrunner. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Hiroyuki Sanada

Occasionally you heard a “Not enough samurai fighting!” complaint leveled against Shogun. Balderdash. Just watching  Sanada’s Toranaga in deep contemplation was top-notch action. Sanada made a character unpredictable yet calculating, full of human ambition yet impossible to ever read completely. — D.F.

Best Lead Actress, Drama Series

WILL WIN Anna Sawai

Given that the two actresses who played Queen Elizabeth II on The Crown both won this award, one cannot totally rule out Imelda Staunton. But the stunning 32-year-old New Zealand-born Japanese actress who played Shogun’s Lady Mariko is looking very hard to beat, having already won the TCA Award for best individual achievement in a drama over all other male and female performers. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Anna Sawai

Why is that hypothetical second Shogun season such a bad idea? Because Anna Sawai’s Mariko is the heart and soul of the first season, a character of complicated motivations and varied emotional richness, and she seems unlikely to be back. Bonus points to Sawai for also being the best part of Apple TV+’s Monarch: Legacy of Monsters. — D.F.

Best Comedy Series

WILL WIN The Bear

The defending champion is, for its acclaimed second season, likely to win again, having garnered 23 noms, the most for any comedy ever. But its third season dropped in June and proved highly polarizing, which could redirect some support to formidable competitors Hacks, Abbott Elementary, Only Murders in the Building, and Curb Your Enthusiasm, all past nominees. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Reservation Dogs

After two years of almost totally shunning the best comedy on television, voters finally noticed Sterlin Harjo’s Oklahoma-set triumph of coming-of-age Indigenous storytelling. The final season included a wild ’70s flashback, a supernaturally fueled look at generational trauma, a wacky mental hospital breakout, and a beautiful father-daughter two-hander. — D.F.

Best Lead Actor, Comedy Series

WILL WIN Jeremy Allen White

It’s certainly nice to see props for Only Murders in the Building veterans Steve Martin and Martin Short and FX stars Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows) and 22-year-old D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (Reservation Dogs). But you can take it to the kitchen: Voters will say “Yes, Chef” to The Bear’s leading man for the second straight ceremony. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai

If I could give an Emmy to one of the Reservation Dogs ensemble, it would be to Devery Jacobs — for writing, directing and acting — but in lieu of that, Woon-A-Tai had a very impressive  season, especially in “Maximus,” which he shared with the great Graham Greene. No offense to White, but Woon-A-Tai or Berry would be more interesting. — D.F.

Best Lead Actress, Comedy Series

WILL WIN Jean Smart

This is between Hacks’ Jean Smart, who won for both of her show’s prior seasons; Abbott Elementary’s Quinta Brunson, who won last year when Smart was ineligible; and The Bear’s Ayo Edebiri, who last year won best comedy supporting actress, then submitted as a lead this season. Smart has beaten Brunson, but Edebiri’s never competed against either. Edge to the veteran. — S.F.